Prognostic model for one-year mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal malignancy at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

Aims: To identify prognostic factors for one-year mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal malignancy in Indonesia. Methods: Retrospective cohort study using the hospital database of patients with upper gastrointestinal malignancy at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital (2015-2019). Bivariate and multivariate cox proportional hazards regression analysis were performed to identify independent factors associated with mortality upper gastrointestinal malignancy. Scoring system were developed based on the identified factors. Results: 184 patients were analyzed, mostly male (58,7%) with average ages 54,5 years old. Independent factors associated with one-year mortality were age > 60 years with HR 1,93 (95%CI 1,30;2,88), body mass index < 20 with HR 2,04 (95%CI 1,25;3,33), smoking history with HR 1,77 (95%CI 1,20;2,61), performance status ECOG > 2 with HR 3,37 (95%CI 2,11;5,37), clinical stage which is 4^th stage HR 9,42 (95%CI 1,27;69,98) and 3^rd stage HR 9,78 (95%CI 1,31;72,69), and cellular differentiation grade  with  HR 2,30 (95%CI 1,48;3,58). 1-year survival rate was 39,7% with median survival was 9 months. The scoring system for predicting mortality had AUC values of 0,918 respectively. Conclusion: The independent factors associated with one-year mortality were age, body mass index, smoking history, performance status, clinical stage of the tumour, and cellular differentiation grade. 1-year survival rate was 39,7%. The mortality probability prediction scoring system has been developed for upper gastrointestinal malignancy